A nearly perfect market?

Internet shopbots allow consumers to almost instantly compare prices and other characteristics from dozens of sellers via a single website. We estimate the magnitude of consumer search costs and benefits using data from a major shopbot for books. For the median consumer, the estimated benefit from simply scrolling down to search lower screens is $6.55. This amounts to about 60% of the observed price dispersion and suggests that consumers face significant search costs, even in this “nearly-perfect” market. Price elasticities are relatively high compared to offline markets (−7 to −10 in our base model). Furthermore, contrary to the common assumption, search intensity is not correlated with greater price sensitivity. Instead, consumers who search multiple screens put relatively more weight on non-price factors like brand.     

Two Lighthouses to Navigate: Effects of Ideal and Counter-Ideal Values on Follower Identification and Satisfaction with Their Leaders

Ideals (or ideal values) help people to navigate in social life. They indicate at a very fundamental level what people are concerned about, what they strive for, and what they want to be affiliated with. Transferring this to a leader–follower analysis, our first study (n = 306) confirms that followers’ identification and satisfaction with their leaders are stronger, the more leaders match followers’ ideal leader values. Study 2 (n = 244) extends the perspective by introducing the novel concept of counter-ideals (i.e., how an ideal leader should not be) as a second, non-redundant point of reference. Results confirm that a leader’s match on ideal and on counter-ideal values have independent effects in that both explain unique variance in followers’ identification and satisfaction with their leader. Study 3 (n = 136) replicates the previous results in an experimental scenario study and provides evidence for the proposed causal direction of the underlying process. We conclude that counter-ideal values might be an additional point of reference that people use to triangulate targets above and beyond ideal values and discuss the implications of our findings for value research and management.     

Adult Mortality,AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi

The future course of fertility is a major determinant of economic development in many sub‐Saharan countries, so understanding how HIV/AIDS affects childbearing is of great interest. We show that fertility responds negatively to female mortality and positively to male mortality and that the overall fertility response is small. The negative effect of female mortality is in line with earlier studies that only focus on women and their infection and mortality risks, while the finding of a positive effect of adult‐male mortality is novel. One interpretation of this finding is that women who perceive a high risk of their husbands' or grown‐up sons' deaths are likely to want to have more children to ensure future support.     

Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules

We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual predictive densities based on the censored likelihood scoring rule and the continuous ranked probability scoring rule (CRPS) and compare these to weighting schemes based on the log score and the equally weighted scheme. We apply this approach in the context of measuring downside risk in equity markets using recently developed volatility models, including HEAVY, realized GARCH and GAS models, applied to daily returns on the S&P 500, DJIA, FTSE and Nikkei indexes from 2000 until 2013. The results show that combined density forecasts based on optimizing the censored likelihood scoring rule significantly outperform pooling based on equal weights, optimizing the CRPS or log scoring rule. In addition, 99% Value‐at‐Risk estimates improve when weights are based on the censored likelihood scoring rule.     

Book Reviews

Huib Foot, Arie Kuyvenhoven and Jaap Jansen, Industrialisation and Trade in Indonesia, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, 1990, pp. vii + 552.

W.L. Korthals Altes, General Trade Statistics, 1822–1940, Changing Economy in Indonesia, Volume 12a, Amsterdam: Royal Tropical Institute, 1991, pp. 200.

Adrian Clemens, J. Thomas Lindblad and Jeroen Touwen, Regional Patterns in Foreign Trade, 1911–1940, Changing Economy in Indonesia, Volume 12B, Amsterdam: Royal Tropical Institute, 1992, pp. 104.

BRIEFLY NOTED: Australian International Development Assistance Bureau, Introduction to Government Administration, Planning and Budgeting in Indonesia, Canberra: Aidab, 1991, pp. xxii + 60.

Helen Hughes (ed.), The Dangers of Export Pessimism: Developing Countries and Industrial Markets, San Francisco: International Center for Economic Growth, 1992, pp. xxvii + 446.

M.G. Asher el al., Fiscal Incentives and Economic Management in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, Singapore: Asian-Pacific Tax and Investment Research Centre, 1992, pp. viii + 133.

Hal Hill, Indonesia's Textile and Garment Industries: Developments in an Asian Perspective, Occasional paper no. 87, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992, pp. vi + 83.     

Integrating the environmental and economic consequences of converting to organic agriculture: evidence from a case study

In the current debate about the future of food quality, the merits of organic agriculture are frequently championed, but few studies have sought to integrate the changes in soil conditions, biodiversity and socio-economic welfare linked to the conversion from non-organic to organic production. This article aims to undertake this approach with respect to one case study. Its conclusions may not be representative for all organic conversions, but the findings are of relevance at a time of debate over changing patterns of subsidies and other incentives in agricultural policy. The study showed that there were demonstrable differences in overall environmental conditions in the comparison of organic and non-organic farming, with field evidence of increased species diversity, and an eventual improvement in the profitability of the organic farming regime. The broad conclusion is that there are definite environmental and economic advantages arising from organic agriculture that are not fully reflected in the present pattern of agricultural incentives. The study also showed that variations in farm management practice strongly influence the notion of on-farm and off-farm environmental consequences. The implications of these findings for the future of sustainable agriculture and for interdisciplinary science are also discussed.     

The Customer Concept: The Basis for a New Marketing Paradigm

Recent developments in both marketing theory and marketing practice make it necessary to formulate a new marketing paradigm. This paradigm consists of three elements: (1) a concept, which is the core of the paradigm, (2) a set of activities, and (3) a domain. The customer concept is the new marketing concept. It is a management orientation which maintains that firms establish relationships with selected individual target customers with whom superior customer values are designed, offered, redefined and realized in close cooperation with other partners in the marketing system such as suppliers and intermediaries, in order to realize long-term profits through customer satisfaction, partner- and employee satisfaction. The new marketing activities include decisions with regard to the firm's stated vision, objective(s), strategy, organizational structure, culture, information system, marketing instruments, business processes and human resource management. The new marketing domain encompasses the broader interpretation of marketing as the central concept in the behavior of the firm. The customer concept implies a reorientation of marketing to one that places the customer in a pivotal role.